Allen’s best full season was in 2013, when he ended as the #17 in standard scoring formats. 105 targets, and 1,047 yard to go with 8 TD’s. Unfortunately Allen hasn’t been able to build on his rookie season success. While on pace for 1,450 yards and 8 TD’s in his 3rd season, Allen was only able to manage 8 games before injuries sidelined him for the 2nd half. Last season was over as soon as it started when in Week 1 he tore his ACL.
While Allen has yet to put together a top 10 season yet, the potential is there. Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman were able to put together a 119 target 1,059 yard, and 97 target 810 yard, seasons respectively. Gates had nearly 100 targets last year. Keenan, if healthy, is going to steal their targets. Through 8 games in 2015 Allen was on pace for 178 targets. It would not be surprising for Allen to approach that number again, especially if Mike Williams misses significant time this season.
When you talk floor with Keenan Allen, what you’re really talking about is injury risk, and for good reason: He’s only played 9 games the last two seasons, and when you’re drafting in the 3rd, or even the 2nd round, you’re passing on some great players to take Allen.
Injury risk aside, Allen has a very high floor. He’s a reception machine, with a quarterback who isn’t afraid to force the issue. It’s hard to imagine Allen ending the year worse than #20 if he is able to play a full season.
Allen is only 25, so you’re likely to get 5 solid years if healthy. However, Phillip Rivers is 36 years old, and even though he says he would like to play as long as he can, it’s unlikely he is still producing at an elite level in 3 years. With no apparent heir to the quarterback throne in LA, coupled with the potential of Mike Williams stealing away the #1 role, it’s hard to imagine the ceiling for Allen is top 10 beyond the next few years.
Drafting Allen in the 3rd round of your startup draft all depends on who you have taken with your top 2 picks. Did you already lock up your WR1 position? If so, Allen might be worth the risk. If you’ve gone RB, RB with your first 2 picks, the safer pick is to take a WR who doesn’t have a history of injury.